Forecasting and evaluation of voltage conditions in a low-voltage power grid with a large share of prosumer installations

The increase in the number of photovoltaic installations connected to the low-voltage power grid, in addition to obvious benefits, under certain circumstances also adversely affects the network's operating conditions. Power generation from photovoltaic sources, strongly dependent on insolation, on the one hand is not able to cover the energy demand in the daily load peaks, and on the other hand - in another part of the day it exceeds the current demand, causing excess energy production. The randomness of photovoltaic generation negatively influences the voltage in the network.

The article attempts to model the variability of network with PV sources operation conditions, using probabilistic methods for this purpose. The analyzes were carried out, based on actual measurement data, for a low-voltage test network with photovoltaic microinstallations. The result of the conducted research is the analysis of voltage levels in particular periods of the year and the day.